New figures released last week by the Census Bureau show that New York State’s population fell by 126,355 people between July 2019 and July 2020, to 19.3 million, a drop of 0.65%, according to the preliminary figures. That’s the most of any state by total and by percentage and the Empire State’s first decline in any decade since the 1970s.

Locally, Orange County slightly bucked the trend. Its population on July 1, 2020 was 387,754. That represents a growth rate of 0.73 percent and up from the 384,940 of the previous year. Ulster County population fell by 0.48 percent over that same time period, from 177,673 on July 1, 2019 to 176,728 a year later.

The 2020 estimated New York population represented a net decline of 41,326, or 0.21 percent, from the official census count in 2010—largely because foreign immigration into the state has fallen off sharply since 2017, according to the Empire Center. Final number for the 2020 census count will not be available until next February at the earliest, but preliminary numbers show that New York’s exodus is among the largest in the nation.

While native New Yorkers - and jobs - have been relocating to sunbelt states for years, foreign immigration has kept New York numbers up. But foreign immigration into the state has fallen off sharply since 2017, in line with a national trend. The Empire Center reports that only five other states—West Virginia, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut and Mississippi—have experienced estimated population decreases from 2010 to 2020. On the other end of the spectrum are Florida and Texas which have experienced population growth of 15.59 and 16.76 percent respectively since the 2010 census. The Empire State, once the nation’s largest, is now 4th in population (19.5 million) behind California (37.68), Texas (27.7), and Florida (21.48).

The largest consequence of this is a diminished presence in Washington. After every census count comes a reapportion of congressional seats. At this point, New York is certain to lose at least one, and possibly two congressional seats to larger states. That trickles down to less political clout and less aid to our schools, cities and towns and infrastructure. A shrinking tax base, meanwhile, means a bigger tax burden for the rest of us to share.