Pine Bush School District continues to see a decline in student enrollment, which could affect the amount of state aid the district receives.

Assistant Superintendent for Business Michael Pacella said the district lost 846 students over 10 years, a 14 percent decrease. The current enrollment is 5,038 students.

The historical peak enrollment was in 2008 with 5,884 students.

“We are not going to see that I believe in a very, very long time, if we ever see it again,” Pacella said.

However, the decrease is supposed to level out in the next ten years, with a smaller projected loss of 286 students over ten years.

“In terms of the total number of students we are going to have in our school, it looks to be leveling out,” Pacella said.

Superintendent Tim Mains said declining enrollments is not a phenomenon unique to the district, as many schools in New York are experiencing a decline in enrollment due to population loss, lower birth rates and other factors.

A gradual decline such as the one Pine Bush is experiencing presents some challenges. Mains said that when a school district’s enrollment decline is gradual, expenses don’t decrease because the decline is across the entire district and most of the same amount of resources, such as buses and staff, are still needed when it’s only a few students from each classroom or grade that leave the district.

However, when enrollments decline state aid also declines. So, schools use the same amount of resources with less state aid.

The increase in population in Orange County offsets the decreasing population in Ulster and Sullivan counties, preventing the decline in enrollment from being more severe. The school’s excellent programs also attract families and students, Mains said.

“If we can continue to be district that provides strong programs, that can be a counter to declining enrollments,” Mains said.

Declining student enrollments across many school districts are caused by population loss and a lower birth rate.

New York state leads the nation in population decline, with a loss of 60,097 people in 2017 and another 48,510 in 2018, and is expected to continue to lose population. Sullivan and Ulster counties are also experiencing a population decline, at a 2.6 percent and 1.7 percent decrease from 2010-2017.

However, Orange County experienced a 2.5 percent increase in that same time period.

Birth rates nationally and in the district have also declined. The district hit its lowest year for births in 2015 with 290 recorded births. Just one year prior, there were 332 births.

Housing situations have also changed. There has been a significant growth of families renting their homes and multi-generational households.

“A lot of people that are migrating out of the state are retaining [home] ownership but renting them out to young families,” Pacella said.

Future building projects and potential for future students include the Chestnut Ridge development in Bloomingburg with 110 certificates of occupancy; the Saddle Hill development in Wallkill with 120 rental units, 95 condos and 58 single family units; and the Farmhood Fields development with 31 single family homes.

By 2030, the youngest baby boomer will be age 65 and all boomers will be out of their child-bearing years. By then, immigration will be one of the principal drivers of population growth, a trend the district is already experiencing.