The Pine Bush Central School District recently unveiled its annual demographic study update which forecasts the coming years and is the first step in the budget process each year. According to Assistant Superintendent for Business Michael Pacella, the study illustrates an enrollment decline across the district largely attributed to birth rates, housing, and economic factors for young couples and families.

The report offers a glimpse into the district’s projected future which allows school officials to plan resources, staffing and move forward with intention when it comes to the instructional budget.

According to Pacella, Pine Bush’s K-12 enrollment has declined by 1,012 students in the last ten years with the largest percentage of 21.5 percent being in the K-5 level with a loss of 519 students. Grades 6-8 have 215 student losses and grades 9-12 had 279 student losses. The 2021-22 enrollment projections were within 12 students, or .03% of the actual enrollment.

“Over the next ten years it’s expected that there’s going to be another 518 students lost and K-5 will be the largest one again at 120. Grades 6-8 is 66 and grades 9-12 at 332 students,” said Pacella.

As part of the overall study, the district studies factors such as births to decipher where kindergarten enrollment will be in five years. In alignment with national birth trends, New York State birth trends continue to decrease.

“You should know, just to show the national trends, that there were just over 3.6 million births in 2020. It’s the lowest number recorded since 1979 and it’s a 4% decrease from the prior year,” he explained.

New York alone had a decline in births of 19% between 2000 and 2020 and between 2019 and 2020, experienced the largest yearly decline over the past 20-year period of 5.6% according to Pacella’s report. However, Orange County’s birth rate increased 11% since 2000.

Census and population data is used to create the report and New York State had a net gain in population of 823,000 people since the prior Census in 2010. Orange County, Ulster County and Sullivan County also increased in population over the ten-year period. However, the Pine Bush Central School District decreased by 1,178 for a total of approximately 32,000 people living in the district in 2020.

A third component that Pacella studied is district housing. With the area still being impacted by Covid-19, low inventory, high demand and low interest rates have caused housing prices to rise. Young adults wishing to start families are faced with challenges when it comes to starting families locally.

District enrollment decreased by 1,012 students over the last ten years with 518 additional losses expected to come in the next ten years. Pacella went on to say that career-oriented young individuals with professional goals, not having as many kids, college loans and home affordability are all a driving force in decreasing numbers. When asked if this means smaller class sizes in the future, Pacella explained what this means for the coming years.

“So fortunately we’re in a good financial positon where you don’t have to lose sections. But yes, you should see smaller sections and if you ever come into any financial distress, you have the ability to put them back up. You don’t want to see your trend start losing this many students because it tells a lot for the district, but it’s not telling you about the district, it’s not the district’s story, it’s the sign of the times story. But then again you’re dealing with it because losing a thousand kids over ten years, that’s a hundred kids a year. It’s a lot. The accuracy of this report is between 99 and 99.7% over the years. So what I’m showing you is going to be a pretty clear picture of what you’re going to experience over the next five years,” Pacella explained.